It's Not a Matter of If, But When

It’s Not a Matter of If, But When

As the cattle pot eased backward toward the chute, I noticed two things.

First, there was a cow bell hanging off the bumper. I chuckled to myself remembering a Saturday Night Live Skit - “we need more cowbell”. Some things never stop being funny.

Second, there was a sticker on the back of the truck that read: “It’s not a matter of if, but a matter of when.”

That one stuck with me.

About that time, Ted—seventy years old if not older —climbed down out of the truck. He’d been hauling cattle longer than some of us had been alive. I nodded toward the sticker and said, “I like that.”

He smiled and said, “When you get to be my age, you learn that sticker holds true.”

Ted wasn’t being negative. He wasn’t complaining. He was stating a fact learned the hard way—through breakdowns, bad roads, bad weather, and worse timing. And as I stood there watching cattle file through the chute, I realized that sticker could be slapped on just about everything we do on the farm.

Because farming, like hauling cattle, is not a business built on “if”. It’s built on “when”.

When the Yield Isn’t There

It’s not a matter of if there will be a poor yield year. It’s a matter of when.

Every farmer has lived it. The year the rain shut off too early. Or wouldn’t shut off at all. The late frost. The hailstorm that found the only field that mattered. 

Yield loss isn’t failure. It’s not mismanagement by default. It’s part of the cycle. The mistake is pretending it won’t happen, or planning like every year will be average or better.

That’s why knowing your break-even yield matters. That’s why diversification, rotation, fertility discipline, and insurance exist. Not because we expect disaster—but because experience tells us it’s not a matter of “if” but “when”. 

On the farm, optimism plants the crop. Realism keeps the operation alive.

When the Market Turns

Grain and cattle markets wear that same sticker.

It’s not a matter of “if” prices will turn lower after a good run, it’s a matter of “when”.

It’s also not a matter of “if” they’ll recover after a bad stretch—but “when”.

The trouble comes when we convince ourselves that this time is different … those prices will stay high just a little longer … that rally owes us one more dollar … that idea of selling today means I regret tomorrow. Sometimes “this time” is different, but more often, waiting on higher prices is how profit quietly slips away.

You don’t need perfect marketing to survive in agriculture. You need disciplined marketing. Selling portions. Protecting margins. Making peace with the fact that no one consistently hits the top.

The owner of the sticker, Ted, doesn’t wait for the perfect day to haul cattle. He waits for a good enough one, because experience has taught him the perfect one might never show up.

When Inputs Jump

Inputs might be the quietest “when” of all.

It’s not a matter of “if” fertilizer prices spike, feed costs jump, or the cost of parts, repairs, fuel, or interest rates rise.

The only question is timing—and it’s usually inconvenient.

That’s why locking in inputs when margins allow matters … why buying ahead isn’t just aggressive, it’s defensive … why running lean during good times isn’t always wise if it leaves you exposed during bad times. 

Cheap inputs don’t last. Neither do expensive ones. But the operation that plans for volatility sleeps better than the one that hopes it doesn’t show up.

Hope is not a strategy. Preparedness is.

When Experience Shows Up

What struck me most about Ted’s comment wasn’t his age, it was his calm.

He didn’t say the sticker with bitterness. He said it with acceptance. Farming and trucking and life taught Ted the same lesson: surprises aren’t rare events; they’re part of the job description.

That kind of wisdom doesn’t make you fearless; it makes you realistic. On the farm, resilience isn’t built by avoiding risk. It’s built by acknowledging it, planning for it, and not being shocked when it finally arrives.
 

Back to the Chute

The cattle loaded, Ted climbed back into his truck, cow bell and all, and rolled down the road toward the next stop. The sticker disappeared with him, but the message didn’t.

On the farm, it’s not a matter of if something goes wrong.

Not if yields disappoint.

Not if prices swing.

Not if costs rise.

It’s a matter of when.

And whether we planned for it.

-Sonny Manley, President-Hebron-